NFL Bargain Bets Week 7

KC +3 @ Oak

Are you a trend guy? Try these on for size: KC is 8-2 ATS (against the spread) in their last 10 AFC West games, OAK is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on grass, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. Or how about the simple fact that Oakland has not beat KC since 2002 (the last 8 games). All trends point to KC. Not a trend guy? How about like opponents: KC beat SD 30-16, while Oakland was crushed by the Chargers last week 28-14. Yes, Oakland is definitely better than they were last year, but not good enough to topple a solid KC squad that should be able to run the ball consistently against a porous Oakland front 7. I think the oddsmakers got their teams mixed up; the Chiefs should be the team giving the points this week. The Chiefs should win this one outright.

Pitt -3.5 @ Den

No one seems to know what happens when an unstoppable force meets and immovable object. But, I think I know what happens when an unstoppable force meets a very pliable object. IT GETS RUN OVER ! Pittsburgh can't wait to bring its league-leading running attack (alright it's second, but it would have been league-leading if Adrian Peterson doesn't go off last week to move Minnesota ahead) to Denver to face the worst run defense in the league. This is one of those games that are all about how the teams' respective strengths and weaknesses line up. In this one, Pittsburgh's strength is running the ball and Denver's weakness is stopping the run. I just don't know how you overcome that. I also look for Pittsburgh's TE, Heath Miller, to have a nice game. We all know about the shut down Bronco's corners, but Miller should be able to find some nice seams as the Denver LB's cheat up to stop the run. Also, home has not been so sweet for Denver as they are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games. The Steelers have reloaded on defense and the Bronco's are reeling after 3 consecutive losses. I expect Willie Parker to feel like he joined the Mile High Club after this one.


Mia +16.5 vs. NE

Am I crazy? Maybe, but this Patriots "greatest team in history" talk has to end, and this is just the sort of game to do it. The Patriots have been en fuego, and the Dophins suck (even trading away one of their best players this week in Chris Chambers), but 16.5 points to a home team in the NFL is an awful lot. I would say this is a classic set-up game. One where the heavily favored team looks ahead to a more important upcoming game (maybe the Nov. 4th game of the undefeateds vs. Indy), but Belichick and Brady, don't look ahead. And, they do want to set some records this year. So, why am I taking the Dophins? Simple centrist mentality, all things tend toward the middle - NE can't continue to beat the spread every week with it continuing to grow while Mia does the opposite. I may be crazy, but I expect Miami to keep it close enough to cover.