Home Dog Weekend

Home Dog Weekend
September 29th 2007

This is a very exciting week in the NFL as there are 9 games where the home team is getting points. I don't think this has ever happened in the history of the NFL. In 2006, we had 2 weeks where 7 teams were home dogs. I've been asked several times by many of my friends to provide some analysis on home dogs. They fear the power of the home dog and rightfully so. There is some sort of voodoo or black magic when favored teams play on the road.

In 2006, the home dogs won 46 out of 77 games! A winning percentage of 60%. The road favorites only had a winning record 2 out of the 17 weeks. The winning trend for home dogs has even continued into 2007 (7 for 11 or 64%).

With 9 games this weekend, you can almost count on 5 or 6 of the home dogs winning with the spread. I am betting against the trend this week in only taking only 2 home dogs. Why you ask? I don't buy any of it!

1. New England was a road favorite in 5 games last year and won 4.
2. Pick Detroit? I'm not on the Kitna band wagon yet. Besides what if he doesn't make it through the first quarter?
3. Read Bargain Bets for the Jets and Green Bay comments. I didn't write the article, but I totally agree with the comments.
4. Seattle is tired of hearing how they lost to the 49ers twice last year and can't play on grass, etc. Well, for one, the QB in the first game last year was Seneca Wallace and Alexander was just coming back from his injury.
5. History has shown that anything can happen in the Eagles/Giants game. However, McNabb was hot last week and the Giants used all their luck to pull out a win in Washington last week.

NFL Bargain Bets - Week 4

NFL Bargain Bets: Week 4
September 27th 2007
by Old Man Winner

Jets -3.5 @ Bills
Buffalo has scored a total of 24 points this year. That's right - all three games combined - 24 points. They are last in the league defending both the pass and the run. This past week they also lost their middle linebacker. How much more do you need to know? Besides, Thomas Jones is getting more comfortable with the Jets run scheme and has increased his yards in each of the first three games, topping 100 yards last week. When it comes to the passing game, who would you rather have, an experienced Chad Pennington with 4 TD's and only 1 INT in his two games this year, or a wet-behind-the-ears rookie who will be starting his first NFL game? The Jet defense must be salivating . . . .

Packers -2 @ Vikings
Yah, yah, I know. Favre doesn't play well on turf. Favre doesn't play well in domes. Blah, blah, blah. Have you watched a Packer game this year? He does not even look like the same guy. He's playing smarter, and much more under control. The Vikings stout defensive line has the capability to hold the Packers run game to close to zero yards, literally. This will force Favre to throw the ball 40-50 times. Exactly! He should eat the Viking secondary alive with a strong contingent of receivers and tight ends. Minnesota, with Kelly Holcolm as their plug-in QB this week, will get very conservative and try to run on the Packers, who should be able to keep them in check. If the Packers can hold the Vikings from rushing for anything less than 150 yards they should cruise. I would expect the Packers to win the turnover battle and cover easily. The Pack are, in fact, back and they are for real.

Patriots -7 @ Bengals
This could be a trap game, but it's hard to argue with the league's most potent offense vs. the 29th ranked defense. How in the world does Cincy stop NE when Cleveland dropped a 51-spot on them just two weeks ago? Besides, Brady on Monday night - C'mon - when has he ever shrunk from a big time game? On the other side of the ball, Palmer does have weapons, but Belichick's defense should be able to scheme against a one-dimensional offense that will be without it's top rusher, Rudi Johnson. I like New England's Ocho Uno in this one!

NFL Free Picks Week 4

Selections in BOLD

OAK at MIA (-3.5)

GB at MIN (+2)

NYJ at BUF (+3.5)

CHI at DET (+3)

HOU at ATL (+3)

BAL at CLE (+4.5)

STL at DAL (-12.5)

TB at CAR (-3)

SEA at SF (+2)

KC at SD (-12.5)

DEN at IND (-9.5)

PIT at AZ (+5.5)

PHI at NYG (+2.5)

NE at CIN (+7)

NFL Week 4 - Who to Start

Who to Start: Week 4

Here is a list of players who I think will produce the maximum amount of points at their position for the upcoming week.

Week 3 Comments: It is not often that you give Peyton Manning and Steve Smith a thumbs down in the same week, but it happened in week 3.

QB - Tom Brady
I am not sure why I waited so long to pick Tom Brady for QB of the week. Brady to Moss is for real and don't forget that Derek Anderson threw for 5 TD's against the Bengals just a few weeks ago.

RB - Joseph Addai
The Colts will no doubt use a game plan similar to the Jaguars and just try to pound the ball against the Broncos. I'm sure Manning will take his shots against Bly and Bailey in order to spread out the defense for the running game. I had Thomas Jones as a sleeper RB this week against the Bills as he started to pick up his game last week against the Dolphins.

WR - Plaxico Burress
With a banged up Eagles secondary, look for Burress to take advantage.

TE - Antonio Gates
Antonio Gates vs Tony Gonzalez. I'm going with Gates this week at home.

K - Nick Folk
Look for the Cowboys to have several opportunities in St. Louis territory this week.

D - Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are at home, Jackson is out, Bulger has broken ribs, and the Rams offensive line is decimated.

NFL Power Rankings Week 4

Source: http://www.pylonpicks.com/powerranking/power_rankings_2007_week4.htm

1. Patriots (3-0)
38 seems to be the magic number for the Patriots. I actually thought we were going to have to wait until week 9 (Colts vs Pats) to see two really good teams go at. However, the Patriots against the Cowboys in Week 6 is shaping up to be a preview of the Super Bowl.

2. Colts (3-0)
The Colts are finding ways to win, nothing dominating or fancy, just consistent.

3. Steelers (3-0)
Like I said the Steelers have a very good chance of starting 5-0.

4. Cowboys (3-0)
Is it too early to say the Cowboys' offense looks better than the team that won 3 Super Bowls in the 90's? Aikman = Romo, Novachek = Witten and Irvin = Owens, Smith = Jones + Barber III.

5. Ravens (2-1)
The Ravens need a new 4th quarter defense.

6. Packers (3-0)
The Packers are rolling. 7 straight dating back to last year, the longest current winning streak in the NFL. Congratulations to Brett Favre on tying the passing TD record.

7. Titans (2-1)
The Titans are a good team to go into New Orleans on a Monday night game and come away with the victory. Maybe Vince should have gone #1 in the draft?

8. Jaguars (2-1)
The Jaguars pounded the Broncos with the running game last week. They can probably beat most teams in the NFL this year with that style of football.

9. Seahawks (2-1)
Seattle is so tough at home. If they can pull off a couple road wins, they should easily make the playoffs again this year. It seems that the Seahawks have found replacements for Darrell Jackson in Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson.

10. Chargers (1-2)
Tomlinson only has 130 yards rushing in 3 games. He had 131 yards in his first game last year. Bring back Marty Ball.

11. Bears (1-2)
Chicago has the post Super Bowl blues. Grossman isn't helping. He has a 45.2 rating and a league-leading six interceptions and with just one touchdown. The defense is falling apart losing Pro Bowlers left and right. Briggs and Vasher both left the last game with groin injuries.

12. Broncos (2-1)
The only excitement last week for the Broncos was Terrell Davis being inducted into the Broncos' Ring of Fame.

13. Eagles (1-2)
Kevin Curtis proved to be the big play threat the Eagles were finally looking for.

14. 49ers (2-1)
I think the 49ers finally realized they can not rely on Frank Gore to carry the load every game. The 49ers also lost Vernon Davis the next two games with a sprained knee.

15. Bengals (1-2)
The Bengals are definitely fun to watch. Last minute turnovers have killed their chances lately.

16. Panthers (2-1)
How often will you see Steve Smith get held down to just one catch for 10 yards and the Panthers still won the game? Delhomme has a strained elbow and is questionable against the Bucs this week.

17. Redskins (2-1)
The Redskins' fans must be sick to their stomachs this week after watching the goal line play calling made by their team. The Redskins have now given some life to the Giants season.

18. Jets (1-2)
Pennington put to rest any questions about his injured ankle last week.

19. Texans (2-1)
Tough to beat the defending champs without your #1 wide receiver. Luckily, the Texans get the Falcons this week.

20. Saints (0-3)
The Saint's are sputtering. How could they go from being one game away from the Super Bowl to this?

21. Lions (2-1)
Well, my idea of Leftwich going to the Lions fell through. Do you think the Eagles had enough room to run around in the Lions secondary last week?

22. Buccaneers (2-1)
The Bucs play the Panthers next week for first place in the NFC South. Of note, Earnest Graham finally got his time to shine rushing for 75 yards and 2 TD's against the Rams.

23. Giants (1-2)
A great 2nd half rally last week by the Giants and a goal line stance that has saved Tom Coughlin's job for the time being.

24. Vikings (1-2)
Kelly Holcomb got his first start but was just adequate. A win by him at the helm over the Packers this week at home may just start a QB controversy.

25. Cardinals (1-2)
A great comeback engineered by Kurt Warner last week but once again the Cardinals fell short. How soon will Leinart be pulled against the Steelers next week?

26. Chiefs (1-2)
Larry Johnson has 10 more rushing yards than Tomlinson so far. Usually that would mean something, but both of them are at the bottom of the league in rushing this year.

27. Dolphins (0-3)
Where was Ronnie Brown the first 2 games? Maybe he got fired up after Ricky Williams announced that he wanted to come back. Cam Cameron is off to the worst start of any first-year coach in Miami history.

28. Raiders (1-2)
Rookie coach Kiffin gets his first win using the same timeout strategy Mike Shanahan beat his Raiders with last week. Dawson actually made the field goal to win the game but a timeout was called right before the snap. Then the Raiders blocked the 2nd attempt for the victory. What comes around goes around.

29. Browns (1-2)
Well, I'm not sure whether to put the Raiders above the Brown this week or not after last week's trickery. Tough decisions.

30. Rams (0-3)
The Rams are in deep trouble. Steven Jackson will miss at least one week with a partial tear of his left groin. As well, guard Mark Setterstrom was lost for the season with a torn left knee ligament.

31. Bills (0-3)
Now Losman has gone down for 2 weeks. This season is a disaster for the Bills..

32. Falcons (0-3)
Matt Schaub faces his old team this week in Atlanta.

Week 3 - PYSCHO aWARD

Week 3 PSYCHO aWARD: Teams that Blew their Cover

The weekly PSYCHO aWARD goes to the players, officials, or team that cause you to curse at the TV during the game and put you on the edge of insanity.

You turn on the TV, it's the 4th quarter, and the team you picked is way up with hardly any time left in the game. You think to yourself that this game is locked up; they are going to cover the spread easily. Well guess again, the prevent defense has prevented you from winning your bets. It drives you insane!!

Jets: Gave up 2 TD's plus a 2 point conversion (15 points!!) in the last 8 minutes to allow the Dolphins to push the spread.

Colts: Gave up a TD with under 3 minutes left allowing the Texans to push the spread.

Ravens: Two weeks in a row the Ravens have blown huge 4th quarter leads (23-6 vs. AZ and 20-3 vs. NYJ).

NFL Bargain Bets - Week 3

Source: http://www.pylonpicks.com/articles/bargainbetsweek3.htm

DEN -3 vs. JAX
Denver currently holds the #1 offense in the league (yards gained). Denver's Travis Henry leads the league in rushing with an average of 133.5 yds/game. Jacksonville's front seven is banged up and, after two games, is last against the rush (141 yds/game). Denver loves to pound the ball against porous run defenses, especially in the Mile High rarified air when visiting teams often run out of air (literally) late in the game. And, although they also sport a top 5 passing attack, they won't need it. On the other side of the ball Jacksonville's offense has been very parochial, averaging only 11 pts a game. The Jags will try to run the ball against the stout passing defense of Denver, but it won't be enough. This has all the makings of a run fest, which Denver should win easily.

SD -4.5 @ GB
This one is not about the numbers. The numbers would throw you - after two weeks the Chargers have the 2nd worst rushing offense in the league and the 4th worst offense overall. But the numbers don't tell the story. The Chargers have played, arguably, the two best defenses in the NFL. As we said in week one, the Packer defense has taken nice strides forward, but they are not Chicago, nor are they New England. LT has only rushed for 68 yards and one TD in two games. Last year he could have easily put those numbers up in one quarter. No, this pick is about banking on the fact that true colors must eventually shine through. Besides, the Packers are a very one dimensional passing team and the Charger secondary is above average.

CAR -4 @ ATL
You know you are in trouble when . . . . you sign Byron Leftwich to come in and improve your franchise. The Falcons are working hard to try and replace the Oakland Raiders as the doormats of the league this year. They have scored a total of 10 points in two games. They simply have absolutely no offensive threat. Don't get me wrong, the Panthers are no juggernaut, but should be able to take advantage of a weak run defense. Besides, no one can stop Steve Smith when he and Delhomme are clicking . . . . which they are. Panthers should win this one going away.

NFL Free Picks Week 3

Selections in BOLD

DET at PHI (-6)

BUF at NE (-16)

MIA at NYJ (-3)

AZ at BAL (-7.5)

STL at TB (-3.5)

SF at PIT (-8.5)

IND at HOU (+6)

MIN at KC (-2.5)

SD at GB (+4.5)

CLE at OAK (-3)

CIN at SEA (-3.5)

JAC at DEN (-3)

NYG at WAS (-4)

CAR at ATL (+4)

DAL at CHI (-3)

TEN at NO (-5)

NFL Power Rankings Week 3

Source: http://www.pylonpicks.com/powerranking/power_rankings_2007_week3.htm

1. Patriots (2-0)
There was electricity in the air Sunday night at Foxboro but none of it was being generated by the Bolts. I've seen other power rankings where New England is not #1. Don't even bother to read what they have to say.

2. Colts (2-0)
The Colts for some strange reason really struggle with the Titans. I wish we could just move to week 9 when the Colts play the Patriots.

3. Chargers (1-1)
Grudge match of the year last week for the Chargers and they got whipped. Norv had the Chargers looking like the Raiders team he coached. I guess just give them some more time to get used to the new coaching staff.

4. Bears (1-1)
When are teams going to smarten up and avoid punting the ball to Devin Hester?

5. Steelers (2-0)
The Steelers took care of business. They now face three NFC West opponents and have a good chance of starting 5-0.

6. Cowboys (2-0)
The Cowboys' point total after two games is their highest since 1971. Once again, Jason Garrett's play calling picked apart the opponent's defense. Romo looks sharp and Marion the Barbarian is a monster running the ball.

7. Ravens (1-1)
Boller gets the job done with McNair sidelined. The ex-Ravens had an even better week (Jamal Lewis rushed for 216 yards and Adalius Thomas had an interception for a TD)

8. Broncos (2-0)
I'll just use the same note from last week. It looks like the Broncos motto this year will be "Just Win Ugly". Well used timeout Mike.

9. Bengals (1-1)
I think there are some holes in the Bengals defense.

10. Titans (1-1)
We knew the Titans would keep it close against the Colts. However, it is all about Reggie Bush vs. Vince Young this week. A tough challenge for the Titans to go into New Orleans after the Saints pathetic start to this season.

11. Saints (0-2)
The Aint's appear to be back, so get out those paper bags for this week's home opener.

12. Jaguars (1-1)
The Jags / Falcons game had zero excitement.

13. Seahawks (1-1)
Normally, it is the Cardinals fumbling the game away. The NFC West is definitely up for grabs this year.

14. 49ers (2-0)
Frank Gore's made his mom proud. Read more. He had 2 TD's plus the game winning TD. The 49ers are looking good at 2-0 and leading the NFC West.

15. Packers (2-0)
The Pack is back. They should request to move into the NFC East.

16. Eagles (0-2)
Good news, the Eagles have found a solution to their punt return issues. However, the Eagles offense looks off balance and is very inconsistent.

17. Texans (2-0)
After a road victory, the Texans can no longer be titled a sleeper team. It is going to be a difficult task for the secondary against the Colts this week, not to mention Andre Johnson is doubtful.

18. Redskins (2-0)
The Redskins are playing sound defense and their mistake free play at QB by Jason Campbell has them 2-0 and tied with the Cowboys atop the NFC East.

19. Panthers (1-1)
Delhomme has answered his critics in the first 2 weeks about his QB play. Luckily, the Panthers get the Falcons this week.

20. Jets (0-2)
Maybe the Jets have something here with Clemens, well for at least 1 quarter they did.

21. Lions (2-0)
Was last week's Lions / Vikings game the sloppiest played game ever? It may be a good idea for the Lions to shop around for a backup QB (i.e. Leftwich)

22. Vikings (1-1)
Kelly Holcomb!!

23. Rams (0-2)
The Rams were inches from winning last week's game as the 56 yard game winning field kick just sailed under the crossbar. It was a frustrating loss for the Rams as they moved the football up and down the field all day but still came up short.

24. Dolphins (0-2)
The Dolphins defense is going to melt and need life support each week if the offense can't put together any drives and stay on the field.

25. Giants (0-2)
For the first time since 1996, the Giants are 0-2. That was the final year for Dan Reeves, which doesn't bode well for Coughlin.

26. Cardinals (1-1)
You have to be happy for the Cardinals to finally be on the winning end this time.

27. Buccaneers (1-1)
The Bucs are in first place in the NFC South! Galloway now has nine TD catches in six games against the Saints.

28. Browns (1-1)
Frye gets shipped to Seattle and the offense scores 51 points? The Browns play the Raiders which will have an huge impact on the bottom of our Power Rankings.

29. Chiefs (0-2)
At least the Larry Johnson's rap song controversy gives the Chiefs fans something to talk about. http://www.kansascity.com/sports/chiefs/story/276113.html

30. Bills (0-2)
It is going to be a rough start for the Bills. Now they get to go play at New England.

31. Raiders (0-2)
The Raiders fall short again after Janikowski's apparent winning kick was negated by a late timeout. Read more. Sunday's loss makes 15 straight divisional losses, 12 successive road defeats and 11 losses in a row overall

32. Falcons (0-2)
Vick may be sharing a jail cell with O.J. Simpson soon

Week 2 PSYCHO aWARD

Week 2 PSYCHO aWARD: Bengals Defense

The weekly PSYCHO aWARD goes to the players, officials, or team that cause you to curse at the TV during the game and put you on the edge of insanity.

There were several nominees for Week 2 from the entire New Orleans Saints team performance to the 10 turnovers in the Detroit game, but the unanimous winner goes to the Cincinnati Bengals defensive unit. Derek Anderson threw for 328 yards and a franchise record tying 5 TD's and the revitalized Jamal Lewis rushed for 215 yards and a TD. You can read more at cincypost.com and relive the torture by watching the video highlights here.

NFL Free Picks Week 2

Selections in BOLD

IND at TEN (+7)

BUF at PIT (-9.5)

CIN at CLE (+7)

NO at TB (+3.5)

SF at STL (-3)

ATL at JAC (-10.5)

GB at NYG (-1)

HOU at CAR (-6.5)

SEA at AZ (+3)

MIN at DET (-3)

DAL at MIA (+3.5)

NYJ at BAL (-9.5)

KC at CHI (-12.5)

OAK at DEN (-9.5)

SD at NE (-3.5)

WAS at PHI (-7)

Week 1 PSYCHO aWARD

Week 1 PSYCHO aWARD Winner: Eagles Punt Returners

The weekly PSYCHO aWARD goes to the players, officials, or team that cause you to curse at the TV during the game and put you on the edge of insanity. There were several nominees for Week 1 from the Jets kick return team to the official who stole Todd Heap's tying TD, but the unanimous winner goes to the Philadelphia Eagles punt returners. The Eagles muffs cost almost everybody, except those living in Wisconsin, to lose their picks this week. You can read more at philly.com and relive the torture by watching the video highlights here.

Do you agree with this week's selection?

NFL Power Rankings Week 2

NFL Power Rankings for Week 2 of the 2007 Season

Source: http://www.pylonpicks.com/powerranking/power_rankings_2007_week2.htm

1. Patriots (1-0)
Will the Patriots be doing the Merriman "Lights Out" dance once again this year? It may be a lot harder this week for the Patriots without video of their opponent's defensive signals. The Patriots are still the undisputed choice right now for the Lombardi trophy and will be even better once Harrison and Seymour come back.

2. Colts (1-0)
The Colts made a powerful statement in their title defense against the Saints in Week 1. The defense has their hands full with Vince Young this week.

3. Chargers (1-0)
Grudge match of the year this week for the Chargers. This week's game has been circled on the Chargers calendar since the 2007 NFL schedule came out. This is Norv Turner's biggest game as a head coach.

4. Bears (0-1)
The Bears get their chance to bounce back this week against the Chiefs. The Bears did a fantastic job limiting LT last week and need to do the same this week against Larry Johnson. The Bears suffered 2 key season ending injuries to defensive starters Mike Brown and Dusty Dvoracek in Week 1.

5. Steelers (1-0)
The Steelers get an injured Buffalo team this week and then face three NFC West opponents. They could have the best record in the NFL come week 6.

6. Cowboys (1-0)
Jason Garrett's play calling picked apart the Giants defense, but it looks like Wade Phillips forgot to bring the defensive playbook with him from San Diego. Dallas may be a little overrated at the 6th spot.

7. Saints (0-1)
The Saints offense was kept in check against the Colts. Luckily for them, they get the Buccaneers this week. The Saints beat them 31-14 at Tampa last year.

8. Bengals (1-0)
Chad Johnson's hall of fame TD celebration was great entertainment. Watch Video

9. Broncos (1-0)
It looks like the Broncos motto this year will be "Just Win Ugly"

10. Ravens (0-1)
This team is simply getting too old. Already into week 2 with McNair & Lewis questionable.

11. Eagles (0-1)
Teams around the league are catching on to the McNabb to Westbrook screen passes. The Eagles will need someone on the receiving core to step up against a tough Redskins secondary this week.

12. Seahawks (1-0)
The Seahawks had the most bone crushing hits on defense this weekend.

13. Titans (1-0)
A very impressive week 1 road victory for the Titans. The Titans split the season series last year with the Colts with both games being decided by 3 points or less.

14. Jaguars (0-1)
Disappointing loss to start the Garrard era. The rushing yards given up by the Jags defense was a huge surprise last week.

15. Jets (0-1)
Tough to win when the opponent knows your defensive signals. However, that is no excuse for the 108 yard kickoff return.

16. Panthers (1-0)
Delhomme was sharp in his first game and Drew Carter established himself as the 2nd receiver on the Panthers.

17. 49ers (1-0)
The 49ers are definitely much improved on defense. The 49ers secondary limited Fitzgerald and Boldin to just 42 total receiving yards. The 49ers travel to St Louis this week.

18. Vikings (1-0)
Adrian Peterson is the real deal. The Vikings will win a lot of games using old style pound the football with the running game this year.

19. Packers (1-0)
The Packers are much improved on defense. However, the offense needs some new plays. The play with Brett Favre completing a pass for 20 yards while being spun around in a 360 and in the clutches of a defender isn't always going to work.

20. Rams (0-1)
The Greatest Show on Turf was supposed to be back. However, the loss of Orlando Pace for the season is a huge downer for the Rams.

21. Texans (1-0)
The Texans seem to be headed in the right direction. A tough road game against the Panthers will be a good challenge for the Texans this week.

22. Redskins (1-0)
Last time Washington won on Monday night was when Brunell hooked up twice with Santana Moss.

23. Dolphins (0-1)
Same old song and dance for the Dolphins. A banged up Dallas D may give the Dolphins offense some life this week.

24. Giants (0-1)
Tom Coughlin's is in a rough situation with a banged up Eli Manning and Jacobs lost for at least 3-5 weeks.

25. Lions (1-0)
The Lions defensive front was very dominant against the Raiders and the offense clicked. The Lions make the biggest leap this week simple because the 7 teams below them are not headed in the right direction.

26. Chiefs (0-1)
The Chiefs have yet to win a preseason or regular season game this year.

27. Bills (0-1)
Encouraging news came out on Tuesday about the condition of TE Kevin Everett. He was able to voluntarily move his arms and legs. The Bills have suffered a tough Week 1 and it doesn't get any easier with upcoming games against Pittsburgh, New England, Jets and Dallas.

28. Raiders (0-1)
Looks like Culpepper may get the nod this week as starting QB. Janikowski needs to work on drawing the ball instead of hitting fades.

29. Cardinals (0-1)
The crushing losses continue for the Cardinals in 2007. How long before Ken Whisenhunt has a Dennis Green breakdown?

30. Buccaneers (0-1)
Jeff Garcia deserves better. After the hit he took in the Seattle game, it looks like it may be a long season for the veteran QB. Carnell Williams may be out for Week 2.

31. Browns (0-1)
Make way for Brady Quinn, Frye is gone to Seattle. I'd guess Quinn gets his chance following the bye week against St Louis.

32 Falcons (0-1)
Matt Schaub must be very happy that he is not in Atlanta right now.

NFL Week 2 - Who to Start

Here is a list of players who I think will produce the maximum amount of points at their position for the upcoming week. The complete article and scoring system can be found at - http://www.pylonpicks.com/whotostart/whotostartweek2.htm

QB - Carson Palmer

Big Ben threw for 4 TD's last week against the Browns. Palmer should put up equal numbers this week.

RB - Brian Westbrook

Westbrook is such a focal point for the Eagles offense; it is hard not to start him this week against the Redskins. We may even see him back there returning punts which could lead us to a bonus TD.

WR - Donald Driver

The Cowboys wide receivers torched the Giants secondary last week for 4 touchdowns. Driver is Favre's best weapon. I'm predicting at least one 50 yard TD reception for Driver in this game.

TE - Daniel Graham

I'm looking for Cutler to find his TE for at least one TD when the Broncos frequently visit the red zone this week.

K - Olindo Mare

The Saints offense is too good to be held in check for 2 weeks in a row.

D - Jacksonville Jaguars

I had great success last week picking the Vikings against the Falcons. This week should be no different for the Jaguars. Not to mention, the Jaguars will be angry coming off a home loss to the Titans.

NFL Power Rankings Week 1

NFL Power Rankings for Week 1 of the 2007 Season
Source: http://www.pylonpicks.com/powerranking/power_rankings_2007_week1.htm

1. Patriots (12-4)
Tom Brady can do no wrong on or off the football field. Asante Samuel has signed. The Patriots have a new and solid receiving core, plus some draft picks that will have an immediate impact this season. The Patriots are an undisputed choice right now for the Lombardi trophy.

2. Colts (12-4)
The pressure of getting past the Patriots and winning the big one are off of Peyton Manning's shoulders. The big question again this year for the Colts will be their defense.

3. Bears (13-3)
The Bears are hungry to get back to the Super Bowl. If Grossman can limit the turnovers and be consistent, the Bears should repeat as NFC champions. Watch for Hester on offense this year, he should be exciting.

4. Chargers (14-2)
Wow, Norv Turner gets another chance. I bet he can't wait to play the Raiders. Look for Vincent Jackson to take some load off of L.T.

5. Saints (10-6)
The Cinderella season is over for the Saints, expectations are much higher this year.

6. Ravens (13-3)
The Ravens addition of Willis McGahee should help the running game but the loss of Adalius Thomas to the Patriots will weaken their defense

7. Steelers (8-8)
The Steelers finished the 2006 season winning 4 out of 5 games. Can first year coach Mike Tomlin keep the momentum going.

8. Cowboys (9-7)
T.O. seems way too relaxed this year. Wade Philips should improve the Big D. With Jason Garrett calling the plays, can the Cowboys return to the early 1990's form on offense?

9. Eagles (10-6)
Can McNabb and Westbrook stay healthy the entire year? If so, the Eagles will be ranked higher by year end.

10. Jaguars (8-8)
With Leftwich gone, it Garrard's offense now. He is a younger prototype of Steve McNair. Jags still have the best defensive tackles in the game. If the Jags don't improve on an 8-8 season, Jack Del Rio will be on the hot seat.

11. Bengals (8-8)
Keep the off-the-field incidents down to a minimum and the Bengals should have a decent year. They did not pick up anyone in the off season to help their struggling defense.

12. Broncos (9-7)
The rotation as RB continues as Travis Henry is now plugged into the Broncos backfield. It is going to be difficult to pass against the Champ Bailey and Dre Bly combination. Cutler, in second NFL season, gets a chance to prove himself.

13. Jets (10-6)
Once again Eric Mangini and his coaching staff will need to be efficient and make the best out of the talent on his roster

14. Rams (8-8)
The Greatest Show on Turf is back. The Rams were already loaded on offense and added Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael. Stephen Jackson is expected to have another career year and Marc Bulger is very underrated as a QB.

15. Seahawks (9-7)
The Seahawks were fading last year. Their reign as the NFC West champion will most likely come to an end this year.

16. Titans (8-8)
Vince Young will need to carry the team on his shoulders once again.

17. Dolphins (6-10)
Third coaching staff in four years, a solid defense, a veteran QB but weak offensive line. The Dolphins however may surprise some people this year.

18. Giants (8-8)
With Tiki Barber gone, it is time for Eli Manning to make the big plays on offense.

19. 49ers (7-9)
The 49ers are an up and coming team. The 49ers made a lot of great off-season moves. The addition of WR Darrell Jackson should bolster their offense and Nate Clements will help a secondary that was nearly last in passing yards given up.

20. Panthers (8-8)
The biggest change this year could be at QB if Delhomme struggles. Steve Smith should be exciting to watch as usual. DeAngelo Williams may become the featured back.

21. Vikings (6-10)
Solid run defense and great offensive line, but Tarvaris Jackson? Kelly Holcomb is waiting in the wings.

22. Chiefs (9-7)
Derrick Johnson at LB looks promising. Larry Johnson will need to carry the ball more than 416 times this year for the Chiefs to have success.

23. Bills (7-9)
The Bills have a brutal first 5 weeks of the season (Denver, Pittsburgh, New England, Jets and Dallas). Lee Evans is projected to have a big year.

24. Packers (8-8)
Where is the running game going to come from this year? Aaron Rodgers probably can't wait to get his shot at QB.

25. Texans (6-10)
Matt Schaub finally gets his chance at QB with Mike Sherman as offensive coordinator. Mario Williams (#1 pick in 2006 over Reggie Bush in case you forgot already) needs to be more of an impact player this year.

26. Redskins (5-11)
The running game of Betts and Portis will need to keep the pressure off of Campbell.

27. Raiders (2-14)
Looks like Josh McCown may get the nod as starting QB over Culpepper. First year coach Lane Kiffin should be able to win more than 2 games this year.

28. Cardinals (5-11)
The Super Bowl is coming to Arizona this year, but the crowd will not be cheering for the Cardinals.

29. Buccaneers (4-12)
It's hard to count Jeff Garcia out. Look at the job he did for the Eagles last year.

30. Browns (4-12)
How soon will it be before we see Brady Quinn start?

31. Lions (3-13)
I hope the Lions aren't already scouting WR Early Doucet for their first round pick next year. The early loss of Kevin Jones will hurt the Lions running attack. Simply no defense either.

32. Falcons (7-9)
The Falcons are wishing they could take back the 2001 trade with the Chargers for Michael Vick.

NFL Week 1 - Who to Start

Here is a list of players who I think will produce the maximum amount of points at their position for the upcoming week. The complete article and scoring system can be found at - http://www.pylonpicks.com/whotostartweek1.htm

QB - Donovan McNabb

McNabb threw for 288 yards with 2 TD's and also rushed for 2 TD's in last year's game against the Packers. I look for more of the same this year with one more passing TD and one less rushing TD.

RB - Willie Parker

Last year Parker lit up the Browns for 223 yards and a TD. If I recall correctly, the Browns hold the record for giving up the most rushing yards in a game. We will see how much Mike Tomlin likes the running game this week.

WR - Marvin Harrison

You could pretty much choose Harrison every week as the top receiver which would make this article pointless, however against a very weak Saints pass defense, I have to go with Harrison. Torry Holt was a close 2nd.

TE - Vernon Davis

Arizona was one of the league's worst against the pass last year and I look for Davis to capitalize inside and outside of the red zone. Hopefully, the 49ers will rest Gore's sore hand by limiting his carries thus giving Davis more touches.

K - Robbie Gould

The strategy here is to find a team who will struggle in the red zone and have to settle for field goals. The Bears may very well be that team this week against the Chargers.

D - Minnesota Vikings

What? Not the Bears, Ravens or Chargers?? Yes, this may be a shocker to some but the match up for the Vikings defense is too good to be true. Without the threat of a Falcons passing attack and with the Vikings having such a great run defense, I'm not sure how the Falcons will score any points in this one.

NFL Free Picks Week 1

You can view all the experts picks for Week 1 of the 2007 NFL season at: http://www.pylonpicks.com/2007_week1.html

Special K's picks in BOLD

NO at Ind (-5.5)
Den at BUF (+3.5)
PIT at Cle (+4)
PHI at GB (+3)
Car at STL (PK)
Atl at MIN (-3)
NE at NYJ (+6)
MIA at Was (-3)
TEN at Jac (-6.5)
KC at Hou (-3)
Det at OAK (-2.5)
CHI at SD (-6)
TB at Sea (-6)
NYG at DAL (-5.5)
BAL at Cin (-3)
AZ at SF (-3)

NFL Bargain Bets: Week 1

Phi (-3) @ GB

Let's face it, when Donovan McNabb was healthy at the beginning of last season, he was lights out. He had 18 TD's in only 9 games, not to mention his 3 rushing TD's. In the third game last season in Philadelphia, the Eagles pummeled the Packers 31-9 when McNabb threw for two scores and ran for another two. What has changed? Not much. The game is in GB, but it certainly is not the type of weather within which Favre thrives. In last year's game, Favre did not throw any TD's, but did have two interceptions. Yes, the GB defense has improved. However, the offense has not shown much punch in the pre-season, especially on the ground with rookie Brandon Jackson toting the rock. This will be another game that Favre will be asked to win against a team that will be bringing the heat. And, once again he will be winging the ball into a fleet-footed Philly defense that should grab at least a couple of picks. This one's a gimme. They don't get much easier. I love week #1.

STL (Even) vs Car

It must be Christmas! The Rams at home against Carolina and not giving any points. Please! This must be a remnant of last year's game where, in Carolina, the Panthers destroyed the Rams 15-0 in week 11. That day the Panthers sacked Bulger 7 times and held the Rams to 80 net yards passing. But that was a lifetime ago. The Rams have since added more weapons to the arsenal (WR Drew Bennett and TE Randy McMichael), solidfied their offensive line, and turned over the play calling to the right guy (head coach Linehan fired himself as the play caller after this game). On the other hand, the Panthers are still undecided on their primary running back, are in the process of trying to move to a new zone blocking scheme, and have an aging QB and star receiver. In last year's game the Panthers rushed for over 200 yards and controlled time of possession by almost 2:1. The stars were aligned that day. Not this year!

Min (-3) vs Atl

This is an easy one to break down. Only one part of the offensive side of the ball will be successful in this game, and that is Minnesota's run game. With Steve Hutchinson and Bryant McKinnie both healthy and creating huge holes on the left side of the line, it does not matter whether the Vikings give the ball to Chester Taylor or Adrian Peterson. Hell, even I could make 5 yards a pop with those holes. Expect to see a Viking run game this year that is more reminiscent of the Chiefs the past couple of years, than what you are used to from Minnesota. As for the Falcons, they are in huge trouble. Last year's #1 running team has a new offense, new blocking scheme, new head coach, and a new QB that can't throw the ball. Oh, and they are playing a team that only gave up an avg. of 62 rushing yards a game last year. Michael Vick is not the only one that will be associated with "Bad News" this year . . . .

SLEEPER FANTASY DRAFT PICKS

It's the 8th or 9th round of your fantasy draft and you are looking for some players who have upside potential and have fallen under the radar. These draft picks are critical to your success of your season because you never know who will get injured or who will under perform. Here are some recommendations for drafting your backups.

QB - Matt Leinart (Arizona)
With one year of experience under his belt and in a division where most games will likely be shootouts, Leinart makes for a great backup if he hasn't already been chosen as a starter. He seems to be ranked just outside of the top 10 in most pre-draft rankings.

RB - Deuce McAllister (New Orleans)
Deuce had 10 TD's last season and I look for more of the same this year. Even though Deuce is sharing the load with Bush, New Orleans has plenty of offense to spread the touchdowns around.

WR - Vincent Jackson (San Diego)
Jackson, now in his second year, looks like the primary target for Philip Rivers in preseason. He has 8 receptions for 128 yards and 3 TD's so far in preseason. Most pre-draft rankings have Jackson as the 28th WR pick.

WR - Kevin Curtis (Philadelphia)
With Stallworth in New England, I would look for Curtis to step into Donte's position. He is a very good possession receiver and I look for him to get many touches in a heavy passing Philadelphia offense. Most pre-draft rankings have Curtis as the 31st WR pick.

TE - Bo Scaife (Tennessee)
Scaife was a teammate of Vince Young's at Texas so he is very familiar with the QB. With lack of WR depth on the Titans, Scaife will be a key red zone target this year. Scaife has already put up significant totals in preseason (10 catches for 123 yards and a TD)

K - Matt Stover (Baltimore)
Stover was tied for the most field goals made last year with Robbie Gould. He is very undervalued in most fantasy pre-rankings.

Article Source: http://www.pylonpicks.com/sleeperpicks.htm