NFL Bargain Bets - Week 3

Source: http://www.pylonpicks.com/articles/bargainbetsweek3.htm

DEN -3 vs. JAX
Denver currently holds the #1 offense in the league (yards gained). Denver's Travis Henry leads the league in rushing with an average of 133.5 yds/game. Jacksonville's front seven is banged up and, after two games, is last against the rush (141 yds/game). Denver loves to pound the ball against porous run defenses, especially in the Mile High rarified air when visiting teams often run out of air (literally) late in the game. And, although they also sport a top 5 passing attack, they won't need it. On the other side of the ball Jacksonville's offense has been very parochial, averaging only 11 pts a game. The Jags will try to run the ball against the stout passing defense of Denver, but it won't be enough. This has all the makings of a run fest, which Denver should win easily.

SD -4.5 @ GB
This one is not about the numbers. The numbers would throw you - after two weeks the Chargers have the 2nd worst rushing offense in the league and the 4th worst offense overall. But the numbers don't tell the story. The Chargers have played, arguably, the two best defenses in the NFL. As we said in week one, the Packer defense has taken nice strides forward, but they are not Chicago, nor are they New England. LT has only rushed for 68 yards and one TD in two games. Last year he could have easily put those numbers up in one quarter. No, this pick is about banking on the fact that true colors must eventually shine through. Besides, the Packers are a very one dimensional passing team and the Charger secondary is above average.

CAR -4 @ ATL
You know you are in trouble when . . . . you sign Byron Leftwich to come in and improve your franchise. The Falcons are working hard to try and replace the Oakland Raiders as the doormats of the league this year. They have scored a total of 10 points in two games. They simply have absolutely no offensive threat. Don't get me wrong, the Panthers are no juggernaut, but should be able to take advantage of a weak run defense. Besides, no one can stop Steve Smith when he and Delhomme are clicking . . . . which they are. Panthers should win this one going away.