NFL Bargain Bets - Week 4

NFL Bargain Bets: Week 4
September 27th 2007
by Old Man Winner

Jets -3.5 @ Bills
Buffalo has scored a total of 24 points this year. That's right - all three games combined - 24 points. They are last in the league defending both the pass and the run. This past week they also lost their middle linebacker. How much more do you need to know? Besides, Thomas Jones is getting more comfortable with the Jets run scheme and has increased his yards in each of the first three games, topping 100 yards last week. When it comes to the passing game, who would you rather have, an experienced Chad Pennington with 4 TD's and only 1 INT in his two games this year, or a wet-behind-the-ears rookie who will be starting his first NFL game? The Jet defense must be salivating . . . .

Packers -2 @ Vikings
Yah, yah, I know. Favre doesn't play well on turf. Favre doesn't play well in domes. Blah, blah, blah. Have you watched a Packer game this year? He does not even look like the same guy. He's playing smarter, and much more under control. The Vikings stout defensive line has the capability to hold the Packers run game to close to zero yards, literally. This will force Favre to throw the ball 40-50 times. Exactly! He should eat the Viking secondary alive with a strong contingent of receivers and tight ends. Minnesota, with Kelly Holcolm as their plug-in QB this week, will get very conservative and try to run on the Packers, who should be able to keep them in check. If the Packers can hold the Vikings from rushing for anything less than 150 yards they should cruise. I would expect the Packers to win the turnover battle and cover easily. The Pack are, in fact, back and they are for real.

Patriots -7 @ Bengals
This could be a trap game, but it's hard to argue with the league's most potent offense vs. the 29th ranked defense. How in the world does Cincy stop NE when Cleveland dropped a 51-spot on them just two weeks ago? Besides, Brady on Monday night - C'mon - when has he ever shrunk from a big time game? On the other side of the ball, Palmer does have weapons, but Belichick's defense should be able to scheme against a one-dimensional offense that will be without it's top rusher, Rudi Johnson. I like New England's Ocho Uno in this one!